A note from Scott: Believe it or not, we are only a little more than 24 hours away from the close of the final round of Oscars voting — it wraps up on Tuesday at 5 p.m. Pt — at which point Hollywood is going to go very quiet for a few days.

Since our last forecast update, Neon’s Anora has continued its run of success with the guilds — on Feb. 15, it was awarded the best original screenplay prize at the Writers Guild Awards (while, in something of a surprise, the WGA awarded best adapted screenplay to Nickel Boys). But Anora received mixed news at the BAFTA Awards on Feb. 16.

The film’s leading lady, Mikey Madison, scored her first major best actress win of the season, putting a stop to the run of Demi Moore for Mubi’s The Substance; and the film also won best casting. But Anora was beaten...