Despite good reviews and solid word-of-mouth (an A-minus CinemaScore), Thunderbolts had a relatively weak opening for a Marvel movie. In fact, when the final box office stats came in on Sunday night, Thunderbolts ended up posting a softer-than-expected launch, with the final $74 million total actually under what Shang-Chi opened with – and that was a movie that came out during the height of the pandemic. To prop up the second weekend, Marvel and Disney have actually more-or-less renamed the film, with it now carrying the title The New Avengers in many markets, which plays off the movie’s final reveal and could be considered something of a spoiler.

But will this new hook be enough to keep the film from falling more than 60% in its second weekend at the box office? Given the soft opening, a more than 50% decline would be disastrous. Thunderbolts will likely post a $30 million weekend, which will...