Once again, the Academy’s Visual Effects Branch will decide the five Oscar nominees at a Saturday “bakeoff,” a selection of footage from the shortlisted films, which are dominated by particularly great character work. Three spots likely await “War for the Planet of the Apes,” “Blade Runner 2049,” and “Star Wars: The Last Jedi.”

However, that leaves a battle for the final two nominations among “Dunkirk” (the lone invisible-vfx entry), “The Shape of Water,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2,” “Kong: Skull Island,” “Alien: Covenant,” and surprise entries “Okja” and “Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets.” The smart money’s on Christopher Nolan’s “Dunkirk” and Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water,” but don’t be surprised if Bong Joon-ho’s underdog, “Okja,” knocks one of them out.

The Frontrunners

“War for the Planet of the Apes”

Andy Serkis’ final, remarkable performance as Caesar should finally...